The U.S. got themselves in quite a fork this week vis a vis Turkey regarding the Armenian genocide declaration and the possibility of a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq.
After a House committee vote to call the killings of Armenians during the collapse of the Ottoman Empire “genocide,” Bush, Rice, and other top officials “are shifting to damage-control mode” and trying to avoid the same vote occurring in the House.
Turkish backlash and consequences in Iraq
Turkish President Gul slammed the resolution declaring the Armenian genocide as historical fact as "small domestic political games." It is another political game, neither small nor domestic, however, that may ultimately determine the fate of the resolution; the one still playing out in Iraq.
As one of America’s only strong allies in the Middle East, the US-Turkish relationship is seen very important to operations in Iraq and stability in the region. Remember the missiles pointing at the Soviet Union the US installed in Turkey during the Cold War? Well the geopolitical space of Turkey is once again indispensable in our troubles with Iraq, as a means for transporting supplies to troops by ground and sea.
America’s potential moves in this game are severely narrowed this reliance on Turkey in the war in Iraq. The invasion more than 4 years ago has yet to stabilize the region in any meaningful or lasting way, and has become a major liability in many arenas. But this liability is now creeping into matters unforeseen and influencing decisions in other matters.
At what cost?
Many government officials, bloggers and members of the Bush administration seem to be echoing the politically correct "At what cost?" analysis regarding losing a close ally in Turkey for the war in Iraq over the Armenian genocide declaration.
House member Adam Schiff (D, California) talked about this cost in March of this year, responding to Condolezza Rice’s opposition to the declaration, stating he was:
… concerned [about Rice’s opposition] for a number of reasons, not the least of which that I don’t see how we can have the moral authority that we need to condemn the genocide going on in Darfur if we’re unwilling to recognize other genocides that have taken place, if we’re unwilling to recognize the first genocide of the last century, where a million and a half people lost their lives.
An excellent point. But it seems that “moral authority” doesn’t come cheaply. And with Iraq a top priority in the eyes of America at the moment, exercising moral authority is contingent on the agreement of war-time allies.
And it is not just Turkish support on the table here. A much more likely scenario is that Turkey will plan and execute and incursion into Northern Iraq to root out rebel members of the PKK. America is not excited about this prospect either.
American contradictions in Iraq
And while on the topic of war and contradictions, there are quite a few striking parallels between the operations of the United States in Iraq and the proposed operations of Turkey, which the U.S. would very much like to quell.
In 2007, Turkey wants to invade Northern Iraq to fight rebel members of the PKK, a group widely considered terrorist in nature. The European Union is not opposed to this invasion, as it sees that Turkey has significant security interests in the area. It is unclear if this will contribute to a stable Iraq.
In 2003, One of the stated reasons for the US invasion of Iraq were asserted links between Saddam Hussein and al-Queda, a group widely considered terrorist in nature. Although the main argument was Iraq’s possession of WMDs, we are now all too aware of the veracity of that claim. The coalition of the willing, including many European countries, supported it, and even sent troops, considering that the US and Europe had significant security interests in the area. It was unclear if it would contribute to a stable Iraq.
Perhaps one of the biggest differences between these two situations is this: While the United States is thousands of miles away from the country in question, Turkey shares a border with it. There is also the matter of pressing national security – if one can use such a phrase concretely anymore - and ongoing violence in the region for decades.
I have no sympathy for the U.S. Government and the mess they’ve gotten themselves into in this and other matters. Transparently throwing aside a priority for “moral authority” because it has allowed a situation where it can be politically blackmailed by a war-time ally in a losing war.
Not a good week in US-Turkish relations, not a good week for the future of a credible American foreign policy.
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